Japan's Interest Rates Expected to Head Higher
Roger Bootle of Capital Economics has an interesting analysis and forecast for Japanese monetary policy in the Telegraph. He argues rates are headed progressively higher:
Bootle says that the assumption of "normal" level of 1% for Japanese interest rates that has recently been bandied about is mistaken. Adding core inflation of 0.8% to real GDP growth of 2%, Boodle comes up with a "normal" rate of 3%. Thus he thinks the BOJ will raise rates steadily and soon. Boodle further argues that this policy will likely have the positive effect of allowing China -- and, in turn, Korea and Taiwan -- to let their currencies appreciate.
Roger Bootle of Capital Economics has an interesting analysis and forecast for Japanese monetary policy in the Telegraph. He argues rates are headed progressively higher:
Japan has been growing at a trend rate at or above 1.5% for three years, which has firmed prices and tightened labor markets. In this environment, Bootle says the direction of rates is not in doubt; the only questions are how much and when.The upshot is that I expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates steadily. And the first increase could come as early as next month.
Bootle says that the assumption of "normal" level of 1% for Japanese interest rates that has recently been bandied about is mistaken. Adding core inflation of 0.8% to real GDP growth of 2%, Boodle comes up with a "normal" rate of 3%. Thus he thinks the BOJ will raise rates steadily and soon. Boodle further argues that this policy will likely have the positive effect of allowing China -- and, in turn, Korea and Taiwan -- to let their currencies appreciate.
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